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针对传统项目估值方法的局限性,在利率市场化前提下,利用利率期限结构模型刻画资金成本的变化情况;在Hazen模型基础上,从投资现金流的角度提出改进的项目估值方法:通过使用Svensson模型刻画无风险利率,并利用遗传算法求解模型相关参数;同时采用熵度量随机现金流的不确定性.结果表明,提出的估值方法能较好地解决Net Present Value与Internal Rate of Return评价结果冲突问题,该方法也能较好地解决随机现金流IRR多解问题;同时,引入利率期限结构与熵的项目估值方法,能更准确地评价项目的实际价值.
In view of the limitations of traditional project valuation methods, the paper uses the term structure of interest rate to characterize the change of capital cost under the premise of market-oriented interest rate. Based on the Hazen model, an improved project valuation method is proposed from the perspective of investment cash flow: The Svensson model is used to characterize the risk-free interest rate, and the genetic algorithm is used to solve the model-related parameters. At the same time, the uncertainty of the random cash flow is measured by entropy. The results show that the proposed valuation method can solve Net Present Value and Internal Rate of Return This method can also solve the problem of multi-solution of stochastic cash flow IRR. At the same time, the project valuation method which introduces the term structure and entropy of interest rate can evaluate the actual value of the project more accurately.