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利用1976～2010年我国内地28个省份的面板数据,本文实证考察了我国各省的贸易开放和地区市场规模对我国省际通货膨胀波动性的影响。我们根据新经济地理学中的市场潜力理论构造了地区市场规模指标,并通过多重工具变量两阶段最小二乘回归法有效处理了贸易开放的内生性问题。研究结果表明,地区市场规模扩大产生的竞争效应缓解了省际通胀波动;而贸易开放将各省置于外部冲击之下,从而放大了省际通胀波动。多个稳健性分析表明我们的实证结论具有较好的稳健性。
Using the panel data of 28 provinces in mainland of China from 1976 to 2010, this paper empirically examines the impact of the opening up of trade and the size of regional markets on the provincial inflation in China. Based on the market potential theory in the new economic geography, we construct the regional market size indicators and effectively handle the endogenous issues of trade openness through the two-stage least-squares regression with multiple tool variables. The results show that the competition effect of the enlargement of the regional market eases the fluctuation of inter-provincial inflation; while the opening up of trade places the provinces under the external shock, which enlarges the inflation of inter-provincial. Multiple robustness analyzes show that our empirical conclusions are robust.