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根据５ａ长期定位观察结果，本文应用两模型参数ｔ检验、弹性分析及边际分析法，探讨年时间序列对炼山与对照的杉木人工幼林养分流失的效应。ｔ检验表明，不同处理在年时间序列上的铵态氮、亚硝态氮、硝态氮、磷酸盐、钾、有机质流失模型的Ｂ、Ａ参数存在显著差异。弹性分析和边际分析表明，年时间对不同处理的上述养分效应呈负效应，在炼山条件下，上述养分流失的弹性系数分别为－１．２１５％、－１．２１４％、－１．２１５％、－１．２１５％、－１．２４１％、－１．２１４％，上述养分流失的边际量分别为－０．３９４ｋｇ、－０．０３３ｋｇ、－０．３６５ｋｇ、－０．０２３ｋｇ、－３０．０１０ｋｇ、－５９．４２１ｋｇ。在不炼山处理下，上述养分流失的弹性系数分别为－０．８４２％、－０．８５１％、－０．８４４％、－０．８５４％、－０．８４５％、－０．８４１％，上述养分流失边际量分别为－０．１５９ｋｇ、－０．０１０ｋｇ、－０．０８５ｋｇ、－０．００６ｋｇ、－１２．０２４ｋｇ、－１７．７６７ｋｇ。
According to the long-term observation results of 5a, two model parameters t-test, elasticity analysis and marginal analysis method were used to investigate the effect of annual time series on the nutrient loss of young Chinese fir plantations. t test showed that the B and A parameters of ammonium nitrogen, nitrite nitrogen, nitrate nitrogen, phosphate, potassium and organic matter loss models in different treatment time series were significantly different. Elasticity analysis and marginal analysis showed that the above-mentioned nutrient effects were negatively affected by different treatments in different years. The elastic coefficients of nutrient loss were -1.215%, -1.214%, -1.215 %, -1.215%, -1.241%, -1.214% respectively. The marginal quantities of nutrient loss are -0.394kg, -0.033kg, -0.365kg, -0.023kg, -30 .010kg, -59.421kg. The coefficients of elasticity of nutrient loss were -0.842%, -0.851%, -0.844%, -0.854%, -0.845%, -0.841% , The marginal amount of nutrient loss are -0.159kg, -0.010kg, -0.085kg, -0.006kg, -12.024kg, -17.767kg, respectively.