文章从经验事实出发,对几个经验命题进行了总结性的阐述,包括1980年代和1990年代改革的结果让人失望;增长最成功的经济体采用的都是“非正统”的政策;存在若干所有成功国家都或多或少遵从的普遍的、第一级的经济政策原则,等等。下一步该如何做呢?文章也给出了两种方法,一是扩展华盛顿共识;一是替代华盛顿共识的方法。在讨论针对经济增长战略的诊断试验的基础上,文章认为将精力集中在那些回报率最高的领域是更具建设性的,而在实践政策建议时,需要摆脱经验法则经济学的影响。 Based on empirical facts, the article summarizes several empirical propositions, including the disappointing results of reforms in the 1980s and the 1990s; the most successful economies have adopted “unorthodox” policies; and a number of Universal, first-level economic policy principles that all successful countries follow more or less, and so on. The next step how to do it? The article also gives two ways, one is to expand the Washington consensus; the other is to replace the Washington consensus method. Based on a discussion of diagnostic tests on economic growth strategies, the article argues that concentrating on those areas with the highest returns is more constructive and needs to get out of the economics of rule of thumb when implementing policy recommendations.