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目的分析安徽省六安市2005-2013年细菌性痢疾的流行特征,对其流行趋势进行预测,为早期防控提供科学依据。方法采用描述性流行病学方法分析2005-2013年《中国疾病预防控制信息系统》中的细菌性痢疾监测数据。应用SPSS17.0软件对六安市2005-01/2013-12的细菌性痢疾月发病率建立自回归移动平均模型(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model,ARIMA),使用该模型对2014年全年月发病率进行预测。结果 2005-2013年六安市共报告细菌性痢疾6 648例,年均发病率为12.38/10万,各年度平均发病率分别为17.61/10万、14.83/10万、11.61/10万、9.16/10万、8.89/10万、10.36/10万、16.27/10万、11.18/10万和14.47/10万。发病有明显的季节性,发病高峰在6~10月。霍山县发病率高于其他地区,差异有统计学意义(χ2=1 278.68,P<0.01)。男性发病率高于女性,差异有统计学意义(χ2=208.47,P<0.01);学龄前儿童组和老年组发病率高于其他年龄组;职业分布以农民、散居儿童和学生为主。六安细菌性痢疾月发病率模型为ARIMA(1,0,1)×(0,1,1)12,模型预测的2014年月发病率基本平稳,不会出现较大的流行。结论2005-2013年安徽省六安市细菌性痢疾总体呈现波动下降趋势,具有明显的季节性、地区和人群流行特征,防控重点应放在学龄前儿童以及60岁以上老年人,尤其是农村地区的留守儿童和老人。ARIMA(1,0,1)×(0,1,1)12模型预测效果良好,能用于六安市细菌性痢疾流行趋势短期预测。
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of bacillary dysentery from 2005 to 2013 in Lu’an City, Anhui Province, and to forecast its epidemic trend, providing a scientific basis for early prevention and control. Methods Descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the data of bacterial dysentery in “China Disease Control and Prevention Information System” from 2005 to 2013. SPSS17.0 software was used to establish Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA) for the monthly incidence of bacterial dysentery from January 2005 to December 2013 in Lu’an City. The monthly incidence rate of 2014 Make a prediction Results A total of 6 648 cases of bacillary dysentery were reported in Lu’an City from 2005 to 2013, with an average annual incidence of 12.38 / 100 000. The average annual incidence was 17.61 / 100,000, 14.83 / 100,000, 11.61 / 100,000, 9.16 / 100,000, 8.89 / 100,000, 10.36 / 100,000, 16.27 / 100,000, 11.18 / 100,000 and 14.47 / 100,000. The incidence of a clear seasonal peak incidence in 6 to 10 months. Huoshan County incidence is higher than other areas, the difference was statistically significant (χ2 = 1 278.68, P <0.01). The incidence of males was higher than that of females (χ2 = 208.47, P <0.01). The incidence of pre-school children and the elderly was higher than that of other age groups. The occupational distribution was dominated by peasants, scattered children and students. The monthly incidence rate of bacterial infections of Liuan was ARIMA (1,0,1) × (0,1,1) 12. The monthly incidence rate of 2014 predictions of the model was stable and no major epidemics would occur. Conclusions Bacterial dysentery in Lu’an City, Anhui Province, showed an overall fluctuation trend from 2005 to 2013, with obvious seasonal, regional and population epidemiological characteristics. Prevention and control should focus on preschool children and the elderly over the age of 60, especially in rural areas Left-behind children and the elderly in the area. ARIMA (1, 0, 1) × (0, 1, 1) 12 model has a good prediction effect and can be used for short-term prediction of the epidemic trend of bacterial diarrhea in Lu’an.