目的　研究高空飞行时减压病发病的概率或危险度 ,建立概率模型 .方法　用生存分析方法分析高空减压病的信息 .结果　减压病危险度先是增加 ,到一定时间后 ,再因吸氧排氮而减少 .风险函数可以叙述这种变化特点 .高空减压病概率模型的参数用最大似然法估算 .结论　以对数 logist Objective To study the probability or risk of decompression sickness during high altitude flight and to establish the probability model.Methods Survival analysis was used to analyze the information of altitude sickness.Results The risk of decompression sickness was first increased.After a certain period of time, Reduce the risk of nitrogen emission.The risk function can describe the characteristics of this change.The parameters of the probability model of altitude decompression sickness are estimated by the maximum likelihood method.Conclusion Log logist