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本文选取2007年3月31日-2008年3月31日房产指数的52周的数据,通过建立Markov预测模型计算出中国房产指数的一步转移概率矩阵,进而得到多步转移概率矩阵,最后利用多步转移概率矩阵对房产指数的波动特征以及今后的走势进行了预测和分析。结果表明,房产指数的上升的趋势还是十分明显的,这就说明房产价格并没有出现所谓的拐点,房地产作为一个顺周期的行业必然会伴随国民经济的成长而成长,房地产的价格也必然随着国民经济的发展而出现合理上升。
In this paper, the 52-week data of real estate index from March 31, 2007 to March 31, 2008 are selected and a one-step transfer probability matrix of China’s real estate index is calculated by establishing Markov forecasting model, and then a multi-step transition probability matrix is obtained. Finally, The step transition probability matrix predicts and analyzes the fluctuation characteristics of the real estate index and its future trends. The results show that the rising trend of the real estate index is still very clear, indicating that the real estate prices and the so-called inflection point does not appear, real estate as a pro-cyclical industry is bound to grow with the growth of the national economy, real estate prices are bound to follow the The development of the national economy has risen reasonably.