【摘 要】
:
The regional hydrological system is extremely complex because it is affected not only by physical factors but also by human dimensions.And the hydrological mode
【机 构】
:
School of Resource and Earth Science,Key Laboratory of Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Processes
【基金项目】
:
国家重点基础研究发展规划(973计划);National Grand Science and Technology Special Project of Water Pollution Control and Improvement
论文部分内容阅读
The regional hydrological system is extremely complex because it is affected not only by physical factors but also by human dimensions.And the hydrological models play a very important role in simulating the complex system.However,there have not been effective methods for the model reliability and uncertainty analysis due to its complexity and difficulty.The uncertainties in hydrological modeling come from four important aspects:uncertainties in input data and parameters,uncertainties in model structure,uncertainties in analysis method and the initial and boundary conditions.This paper systematically reviewed the recent advances in the study of the uncertainty analysis approaches in the large-scale complex hydrological model on the basis of uncertainty sources.Also,the shortcomings and insufficiencies in the uncertainty analysis for complex hydrological models are pointed out.And then a new uncertainty quantification platform PSUADE and its uncertainty quantification methods were introduced,which will be a powerful tool and platform for uncertainty analysis of large-scale complex hydrological models.Finally,some future perspectives on uncertainty quantification are put forward.
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