长期以来,各国科学家们一直在注意公开发表的科技论文与各学科发展的关系,并推测二者之间存在着某种对应。美国科技情报部门的研究表明:某年某学科发表论文数量最多的研究方向与当年诺贝尔奖获奖项目的研究方向基本一致。总之,国外在这一领域的研究已做了大量深入的工作,并取得了不少成果。但国内学术界(特别是林学界)对这个问题的研究还很少。 For a long time, scientists from various countries have been paying attention to the relationship between published scientific papers and the development of various disciplines, and speculated that there is some correspondence between the two. Research by the U.S. science and technology intelligence department shows that the research direction with the largest number of dissertations published in a discipline in a particular year is basically in line with the research directions of the winning Nobel Prizes. In short, a great deal of in-depth work has been done by foreign researchers in this field and many achievements have been made. However, there are few studies on this issue in the domestic academic circles (especially the forestry sector).