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目的:应用蒙特卡罗模拟-重要抽样法计算每日极量摄入铅的概率。方法:先通过文献引用获取三七含铅量及人群平均体重数据,通过社会调查获取每日摄入三七量数据,通过实验获取三七铅提取率数据。然后用Matlab分别建立三七含铅量以及每日摄入三七量的概率分布模型,应用蒙特卡罗模拟-重要抽样法计算每日极量摄入铅的概率。最后比较蒙特卡罗模拟-重要抽样法和蒙特卡罗模拟-直接抽样法的优劣。结果:2种蒙特卡罗模拟方法的计算结果均与解析计算的结果一致,但是前者评估结果的变异系数明显比后者低。结论:蒙特卡罗模拟-重要抽样法可作为评估中药有害物质健康风险的重要方法加以推广。
OBJECTIVE: To calculate the probability of daily intake of lead by Monte Carlo simulation-important sampling method. Methods: The content of lead in Panax notoginseng and the average weight of the population were obtained through literature review. The data of daily intake of Panax notoginseng were obtained through social investigation. The data of extraction rate of Panax notoginseng from the experiment were obtained. Then, using Matlab to establish the probability distribution model of notoginsenoside and daily intake of Panax notoginseng, the probability of daily intake of lead by daily maximum was calculated by Monte-Carlo simulation-vital sampling method. Finally, compare the advantages and disadvantages of Monte Carlo simulation - important sampling method and Monte Carlo simulation - direct sampling method. Results: The results of two Monte Carlo simulation methods are consistent with the results of analytical calculation, but the coefficients of variation of the former results are obviously lower than the latter. Conclusion: The Monte Carlo simulation-vital sampling method can be used as an important method to evaluate the health risks of harmful substances in Chinese medicine.