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本文简要推导了工程场地遭受地震烈度I与相应积分频次N(I)之间存在如下关系 longN(I)=P-qI (1)由上式可以对场地未来一定年限内可能遭受的地震烈度进行预测。通过分析山东省境内菏泽、曲阜、德州三个试验场地1881—1980年及另外六项重大工程场地未来100年烈度预测实例,结果表明,尽管这些场地的地震活动性背景差异较大,但数学期望既与三个试验场地1881—1980年实际遭受地震烈度情况相符,也与由地震危险性研究综合评定的六项重大工程场地的基本烈度一致。从而认为,场地烈度预测在工程地震中将具有一定的实用意义。
In this paper, the relationship between earthquake intensity I and the corresponding integral frequency N (I) is deduced briefly. LongN (I) = P-qI (1) The above formula can be used to estimate the seismic intensity that may be suffered in a certain future period prediction. By analyzing the prediction examples of the intensities of the three major test sites in Heze, Qufu and Texas from 1881 to 1980 in Shandong province and the other 100 major projects in the next 100 years, the results show that although the seismic activity backgrounds in these sites are quite different, the mathematical expectation It accords with the actual earthquake intensity of 1881-1980 in the three test sites and the same with the basic intensities of the six major project sites comprehensively assessed by the Seismic Hazard Study. Therefore, the prediction of site intensity will have some practical significance in engineering earthquake.