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动态路径诱导是解决交通拥堵问题行之有效的手段.传统动态路径诱导系统中的路径选择模型依托期望效用理论,实践表明这种以确定性的理论解决具有不确定性的交通问题的模型与出行者的实际行为之间存在明显的背离.针对交通状况的复杂性、时变性、不确定性,本文建立一种基于前景理论的路径选择模型,该模型考虑了由于出行者的主观能动性而导致的非完全理性化的交通行为特征,能够准确地描述不确定性交通条件下出行者的决策过程.通过仿真实验对比基于前景理论与基于期望效用理论的路径选择模型给出的最优路径,结果表明前景理论在描述出行者的路径选择行为时能够在一定程度上克服期望效用理论的不足,可以较准确地刻画出行者在不确定性条件下的路径选择决策行为,更接近于出行者的实际行为模式.
Dynamic Route Guidance is an effective way to solve the traffic congestion problem.Traditional route choice model in dynamic route guidance system relies on expectant utility theory and practice shows that this model of deterministic theory solves the traffic problem with uncertainty and travel There is a clear departure from the actual behavior of the passengers.According to the complexity, time-variability and uncertainty of the traffic conditions, a path selection model based on the foreground theory is established in this paper, which takes into account the subjective initiative of the traveler The characteristics of non-fully rationalized traffic behavior can accurately describe the decision-making process of travelers under uncertain traffic conditions.Through the simulation experiment, the optimal path based on the prospect theory and the path selection model based on the expected utility theory is contrasted, and the result shows Prospect theory can overcome the shortcoming of expectant utility theory when describing the path choice behavior of travelers, and can accurately describe the decision-making behavior of travelers under uncertain conditions and closer to the actual behaviors of travelers mode.