论文部分内容阅读
目的:探讨Gail乳腺癌风险评估模型的应用价值。方法:回顾性分析沈阳医学院沈洲医院69例乳腺癌患者及159例正常对照组的年龄、乳腺疾病史、家族史、初潮年龄、初产年龄、乳腺活检情况及种族的资料,应用Gail乳腺癌风险评估模型评估5年前的发病风险,并绘制ROC曲线及评价Gail模型作为诊断试验的价值。结果:病例组65例及对照组10例,经模型评估后提示有5年内乳腺癌发病高风险。Gail模型作为诊断试验的评价结果,其灵敏度为94.2%,特异度为93.7%,阳性预测值为86.7%,阴性预测值为97.4%。结论:Gail乳腺癌风险评估模型对乳腺癌发病高风险人群的预测价值较高,可作为高风险人群的乳腺癌筛查的工具。
Objective: To explore the value of Gail breast cancer risk assessment model. Methods: The age, history of breast disease, family history, age of menarche, age of first trimester, age of first trimester, breast biopsy and ethnicity were retrospectively analyzed in 69 cases of breast cancer patients and 159 normal controls in Shenyang Medical College Shenzhou Hospital. Gail mammary gland The Cancer Risk Assessment Model assesses the risk of developing a disease five years ago and draws a ROC curve and evaluates the Gail model as a diagnostic test. Results: There were 65 cases in the case group and 10 cases in the control group. It was estimated by the model that there was a high risk of breast cancer in 5 years. Gail model as a diagnostic test evaluation results, the sensitivity was 94.2%, specificity was 93.7%, positive predictive value was 86.7%, negative predictive value was 97.4%. CONCLUSIONS: The Gail breast cancer risk assessment model has a high predictive value for people at high risk of breast cancer and can be used as a screening tool for breast cancer screening in high-risk groups.