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运用耦合指数和ESDA方法,从时空维度动态分析2002—2013年南京农事节庆活动与旅游业发展的耦合状况,得到以下结论:1在年际尺度上两者存在明显正向相关关系,农事节庆活动呈现“协调发展、效益提升、快速发展、优化调整”阶段性波动特征;在季节变化上则呈现整体相似特征,3—4月和9—11月出现较明显的峰值期,但农事节庆活动表现出更强的季节性。22002—2013年农事节庆活动空间耦合差异较明显,耦合指数稳定变化的有主城区、高淳区和六合区,偏离1的有江宁区,波动变化的有溧水区和浦口区;农事节庆活动空间耦合整体存在南北方向上以主城区为中心自北向南,东西方向上由偏西部向偏东部演化的特征。最后,提出南京今后农事节庆活动与旅游业发展的建议。
Coupling index and ESDA method were used to dynamically analyze the coupling status of Nanjing agricultural activities and tourism development from 2002 to 2013 from the perspective of spatio-temporal dimension. The conclusions are as follows: 1 There is a clear positive correlation between the two in the inter-annual scale, Showing the characteristics of “periodic development” of “coordinative development, efficiency improvement, rapid development, optimization and adjustment”, showing similar overall characteristics in seasonal changes, and obvious peak periods in March-April and September-November. However, agricultural festivals Activities show a stronger seasonal. 22002 - The spatial coupling of agricultural festivals in 2013 was significantly different. The main urban areas with the stable change of coupling index, Gaochun and Luhe districts, Jiangning district deviated from 1, Lishui district and Pukou area fluctuating; agricultural space activities As a whole, there is a feature of evolution from west to east in the north-south and east-west directions centered on the main city in the north-south direction. Finally, it puts forward the suggestions of Nanjing future agricultural activities and tourism development.