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预计到1997年,世界经济年增长率大约为3％,成品润滑油需求量也将增加,其年增长率约为2％。至少在今后5年内,世界润滑油仍将供大于求。预计中东、亚洲和南美等地区需求增长幅度较大,美国、西欧增幅较小,前苏联、东欧的需求平稳。在基础油供应方面,今后5年生产能力的增长主要来自中东和亚太地区。预计世界石蜡基基础油到90年代中期会出现大约6％的剩余能力。亚太地区尽管生产能力显著增加,但预计到90年代末供需关系仍显紧张,基础油进口主要将来自欧洲和中东。
It is estimated that by 1997, the annual growth rate of the world economy will be about 3% and the demand for finished lubricants will also increase, at an annual growth rate of about 2%. At least in the next five years, the world’s oil will still be oversupplied. Demand growth is expected to be greater in the Middle East, Asia and South America, with a smaller increase in the United States and Western Europe and steady demand in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. In terms of base oil supply, the growth in production capacity over the next five years mainly comes from the Middle East and the Asia Pacific region. Approximately 6% of the world paraffin base oil is expected to show an excess capacity of about 6% by the mid-1990s. Despite the significant increase in production capacity in the Asia-Pacific region, it is estimated that supply and demand will remain tense by the end of the 1990s, with imports of base oil mainly coming from Europe and the Middle East.