在我国经济周期波动中,最终消费、资本形成总额和净出口这3架马车起着至关重要的作用。文章通过预警信号系统对比分析了我国消费、投资等主要经济变量在20世纪80年代末以来发生的几次经济波动中作用的变化,并利用可变参数模型分析了对外贸易与经济周期波动的关系。 In our country’s economic cycle, the final consumption, total capital formation and net exports of these three wagons play a crucial role. The article compares and analyzes the changes of several economic fluctuations in China’s consumption, investment and other major economic variables since the end of 1980s through the warning signal system. By using the variable parameter model, this paper analyzes the relationship between foreign trade and economic cycle fluctuations .