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针对地方性政府债务评估问题,通过层次分析法、构造比较判断矩阵和一致性检验等方法,构建出基于三个一级指标(负有直接偿债责任的债务、负有担保责任的或有债务、其他相关债务)和九个二级指标(对应省级、市级和县级的一级指标)的模糊综合评价模型,然后利用该模型对2014年全国主要省市的债务风险进行了适当的评估,并针对评估结果进行了合理的分析,最后针对地方政府债务风险管理给出了相关合理的建议.
According to the assessment of the local government debt, this paper constructs a three-level index (debt with direct debt-service liability and contingent liability with guarantee liability) through analytic hierarchy process, construct comparative judgment matrix and consistency test, , Other related liabilities) and nine second-level indicators (corresponding to the first-level indicators at the provincial, municipal and county levels), and then use the model to make appropriate debt risk estimates for the major provinces and cities in 2014 in China Evaluation, and carried out a reasonable analysis of the assessment results, and finally made some reasonable suggestions for the management of local government debt risk.