记者:从各方面迹象看,今年的经济形势很不乐观,问题出在何处,也没有一致的看法。作为一个经济战略理论专家,能否谈谈您对当前经济形势的看法? 沈:从全国范围来讲,目前比较困难的是治理整顿。自从打出“治理整顿”这面旗帜以来,至今快一年了,进展是明显的,如经济过热已降温,增长的速度也稳一些了。但总的来看,困难比预计的要严重。因为经济发展虽没有滑坡,但效益滑坡很厉害,而且无论是在经济过热时,还是经济过热降温后,经济效益一直在滑坡,并为日后的经济滞胀埋下了种子。但更值得担心的是上上下下都忽视了这个问题的严重性。其实,从当前的形势看,经济困难的主要症结就是在效益滑坡上。经济效益滑坡确实是冰冻三尺非一日之寒,这种局面的产生,与我们整个经济发展战略、整个传统体制以及现在形成的经济结构都有关系。十年改革以来,传统的经济发展战略没有根本的变动,实际上还是原来的一套:以工业化作为发展目标,增长速度作为基本要求,大量投资作为主要手段,外延扩大再生产作为主要方式。至于经济效益、经济结构与科技进步等都 Reporter: Looking at the signs from all aspects, the economic situation this year is not optimistic. The problems are out there and no consensus is reached. As an expert on economic strategy theory, can you talk about your views on the current economic situation? Shen: At a national level, it is more difficult to rectify the current situation. Since the banner of “rectifying governance” has hitherto been released, almost a year now has passed. The progress has been remarkable. For instance, the overheated economy has cooled down and its growth rate has stabilized. But overall, the difficulties are worse than expected. Although economic development has not suffered a landslide, the landslide has been very powerful. And economic benefits have been declining and the seeds have been laid for future economic stagnation, both in times of overheating and overheating. But what is even more worrying is that the gravity of the problem has been overlooked. In fact, judging from the current situation, the main crux of the economic difficulties is the decline in efficiency. The economic downturn is indeed a freeze on the ice, a situation that has a bearing on our entire economic development strategy, the entire traditional system and the present economic structure. Since the reform of the past decade, the traditional strategy for economic development has not fundamentally changed. In fact, it is still the original one: using industrialization as the goal of development and growth rate as the basic requirements, using large amounts of investment as the main means and extending and expanding reproduction as the main methods. As for the economic benefits, economic structure and technological progress are all