论文部分内容阅读
本文利用VAR模型和误差修正模型等方法对国内和国际大豆的现货价格和期货价格之间的长短期关系进行实证分析。根据研究得出,国内和国际大豆现货价格之间存在长期的协整关系,国际大豆现货价格对国内大豆现货价格有显著影响,此结论同样适用于国际和国内大豆期货价格之间的分析。但是国际大豆的现货价格在调整速度上明显快于大豆的期货价格。最后,本文从大豆的现货价格、期货市场和自身技术三个方面提出稳定国内大豆价格的建议。
In this paper, VAR model and error correction model and other methods for domestic and international soybean spot price and futures price of the short-term relationship between the empirical analysis. According to the research, there is a long-term cointegration relationship between domestic and international soybean spot prices. International spot soybean prices have a significant impact on domestic soybean spot prices. This conclusion also applies to the analysis between international and domestic soybean futures prices. However, the spot price of international soybean is significantly faster than the adjustment of soybean futures prices. Finally, this article puts forward the suggestion to stabilize the domestic soybean price from three aspects: the spot price of soybean, the futures market and its own technology.