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本文从历史周期、政党重组和区域主义这三大历史比较分析视角,对1968年和1992年大选进行了分析。1968年大选和1992年大选都属于关键性选举,因为它们都引发了新一轮党派重组和区域重组,从根本上改变了美国政治版图,而2012年大选的结果是1992年大选以后形成的党派重组和区域关系的延续。在1992年大选中,克林顿战胜了在任共和党总统老布什,开启了民主党此后24年(1993年至2016年)的主导地位。此外,1992年大选后所形成的两大政党在区域上的重组也一直延续到2012年大选,即中西部地区和南部地区支持共和党,东北部和太平洋沿岸地区支持民主党。2016年之后的美国或许将迎来新一轮政党重组,在这一轮重组后,共和党将重新占据主导地位。
This article analyzes the 1968 and 1992 presidential elections from the perspectives of historical cycle, political party restructuring and regionalism. Both the 1968 and 1992 elections were crucial because they both triggered a new round of party restructuring and regional restructuring that fundamentally changed the political landscape of the United States. The result of the 2012 general election was the formation of parties after the 1992 general election Restructuring and continuation of regional relations. In the 1992 general election, Clinton defeated the incumbent President George HW Bush inaugurated the dominance of Democrats for the next 24 years (1993 to 2016). In addition, the regional reorganization of the two major political parties formed after the 1992 general election has also continued into the 2012 general election, which supports the Republicans in the central and western regions and the south, and supports the Democratic Party in the northeast and the Pacific Rim. After 2016, the United States may usher in a new round of political party restructuring. After this round of restructuring, the Republican Party will regain its dominance.