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基于改革开放以来中国经济发展存在投资专有技术变迁的特征事实,文章构建了包含投资专有技术变迁的小国开放经济RBC模型,并利用该模型模拟中国实际经济的波动特征。研究结果表明:文章所构建的RBC模型能够解释85%以上中国实际经济波动,准确地预测各宏观经济变量与产出的相关性。基于脉冲响应函数的分析也验证了所构建的RBC模型具有合理性。
Based on the fact that the economic growth of China has the characteristics of the change of investment proprietary technology since the reform and opening up, the paper constructs a RBC model of small-country open economy that contains the change of investment proprietary technology and uses the model to simulate the fluctuation characteristics of China’s real economy. The results show that the RBC model constructed by this paper can explain more than 85% of China’s real economic fluctuations and accurately predict the correlation between the macroeconomic variables and output. The analysis based on impulse response function also verifies that the constructed RBC model is reasonable.