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目的探讨影响肝衰竭预后的危险因素,并建立其预后模型。方法回顾性调查2006年6月—2008年12月我科收治的252例肝衰竭患者的临床资料。采用多因素Logistic回归分析,得出相应的独立危险因素,并建立预后模型。结果多因素Logistic回归分析显示,患者年龄、肝性脑病、上消化道出血、感染、TBIL、PT是影响肝衰竭患者预后的独立危险因素。对所得出的独立危险因素建立肝衰竭患者的预后判断模型,计算预后指数并绘制受试者工作特征曲线,其曲线下面积为0.924(95%CI0.892,0.957)。结论年龄、肝性脑病、上消化道出血、感染、TBIL、PT是影响肝衰竭患者预后的独立危险因素。本研究初步建立预后模型能够较为准确地预测肝衰竭患者的短期预后,是一个较为理想的肝衰竭预后评估系统。
Objective To explore the risk factors affecting the prognosis of liver failure and to establish its prognosis model. Methods The clinical data of 252 patients with liver failure admitted in our department from June 2006 to December 2008 were retrospectively reviewed. Using multivariate Logistic regression analysis, we obtained the corresponding independent risk factors and established the prognosis model. Results Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that patients’ age, hepatic encephalopathy, upper gastrointestinal bleeding, infection, TBIL and PT were independent risk factors for prognosis of patients with liver failure. Prognosis model of liver failure patients was established based on the independent risk factors. The prognostic index was calculated and the working characteristic curve of the subjects was drawn. The area under the curve was 0.924 (95% CI0.892,0.957). Conclusion Age, hepatic encephalopathy, upper gastrointestinal bleeding, infection, TBIL and PT are independent risk factors for prognosis of patients with liver failure. The preliminary establishment of a prognostic model in this study can predict the short-term prognosis of patients with liver failure more accurately and is an ideal prognostic assessment system for liver failure.