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在应对气候变化的背景下,我国电力行业承担着重要的减排任务,而可再生能源已成为电力行业减排的重要选项。对影响可再生能源发电的重要因素(如成本、技术成熟度等)进行分析和预测,结合资源潜力、经济发展和环境约束等因素建立了中国可再生能源发电优化模型。模型对2020年可再生能源发电的潜力进行了预测,探讨了各种可再生能源发电技术的发展特点及其单位投资成本的变化趋势,并对其各自的主要影响因素进行了分析。研究结果对于我国中长期能源规划具有很强的借鉴意义。
In the context of coping with climate change, China’s power industry undertakes an important emission reduction task, and renewable energy has become an important option for reducing emissions in the power industry. Analyzed and predicted the important factors (such as cost, technology maturity, etc.) that affect the renewable energy power generation, combined with the resource potential, economic development and environmental constraints and other factors to establish China’s renewable energy generation optimization model. The model forecasts the potential of renewable energy power generation in 2020, discusses the development characteristics of various renewable energy power generation technologies and the trends of unit investment costs, and analyzes their respective main influencing factors. The research results have great reference significance for the medium and long-term energy planning in our country.