在全球金融危机爆发前,中国央行似乎较好地克服了三难选择:在资本持续流入与人民币渐进升值的同时,大致实现了货币政策的独立性,但付出的代价则是与外汇储备飙升相关的成本与风险,以及不菲的冲销成本。自2014年以来,中国央行面临着新的三难选择:在资本持续流出背景下,为了维持汇率渐进贬值态势,中国央行不得不放慢降息与降准的节奏。作为一个大型经济体,未来中国需要有独立的货币政策与自由浮动的汇率制度;但在汇率转型的过渡时期,中国政府仍然需要对跨境资本流动进行管理。 Before the outbreak of the global financial crisis, the PBOC seemed to have overcome the dilemma of making monetary policy more or less independent while it continued its inflow of capital and its gradual appreciation of the renminbi. At the cost of surging foreign exchange reserves, however, The cost and risk, as well as the expensive write-off costs. Since 2014, the People’s Bank of China has faced a new dilemma: Under the background of continuous capital outflow, in order to maintain the gradual devaluation of the exchange rate, the People’s Bank of China will have to slow down the pace of interest rate cuts and RRR cuts. As a large economy, China needs an independent monetary policy and a free floating exchange rate system in the future. However, during the transitional period of exchange rate reform, the Chinese government still needs to manage cross-border capital flows.