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笔者通过构建带有控制变量的面板格兰杰因果关系检验模型,使用2000年~2010年的省际面板数据,对中国现阶段的储蓄率和实际GDP增长率之间的关系进行了探讨。结果发现,实际GDP增长率的变化是导致储蓄率变化的原因,并且这种关系在28个省域中普遍存在,个体间没有差异,但反过来,当剔除掉山西和内蒙古这两个资源性的省域后,发现储蓄率并不是实际GDP增长率的原因。
By constructing a panel Granger causality test with control variables and using provincial panel data from 2000 to 2010, the author discusses the relationship between the current savings rate and real GDP growth rate in China. The result shows that the change of the real GDP growth rate is the reason that causes the change of the saving rate. And this kind of relationship prevails in 28 provinces and there is no difference among the individuals. On the contrary, when excluding the two resources of Shanxi and Inner Mongolia Of the provinces, found that the savings rate is not the reason for the real GDP growth rate.