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传统的负荷预测是电力系统规划与运行的基础工作,电力市场化的改革对负荷预测提出了更高的要求,赋予其新的内涵。文中探讨了电力市场中的预测问题,分别针对发电侧竞价和用户侧开放的电力市场,提出了一些新的预测内容和预测思想,包括扩展短期负荷预测、连续多日负荷曲线预测、电力市场价格预测、市场风险预测与评估、考虑需求侧管理影响的电力需求预测、用电需求曲线预测、基于价格弹性的需求预测等,指出了这些预测问题的研究热点和难点,探讨了未来的主要研究方向。
Traditional load forecasting is the basic work of power system planning and operation. The marketization of electricity market puts forward higher requirements on load forecasting and gives it new connotation. In this paper, the forecast problems in the electricity market are discussed. Some new predictions and forecasting ideas are proposed for the bidding on the generation side and on the electricity market on the user side. These include expansion of short-term load forecasting, continuous multi-day load curve forecasting, electricity market price Forecasting, market risk forecasting and assessment, power demand forecasting considering the demand side management impact, electricity demand curve forecasting and demand forecasting based on price elasticity and so on, pointing out the research hot spots and difficulties of these forecasting issues, and discussing the main research directions in the future .