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目的通过我院2002年～2006年来各季度的实际住院量变化趋势,预测2007年我院各季的住院人数。方法运用移动平均趋势剔除法配合最小二乘法建立线性模型,并利用PEMS3.1统计软件包对模型进行回归分析。结果趋势季节回归模型为Yc=2530.6+250.35X,方差分析结果P<0.05,显示该方程呈直线相关关系,预测值=季平均预测值×各季的季节比率。结论通过预测住院人数为医院制定工作计划和领导决策提供可靠的依据,实现卫生资源的优化配置。
Objective To predict the number of hospital admissions in each season of 2007 in our hospital through the changes in actual hospitalization in each quarter from 2002 to 2006. Methods The linear model was built using the moving average trend elimination method combined with the least squares method. The regression model was analyzed using the PEMS 3.1 statistical software package. The results of seasonal regression model for the Yc = 2530.6 + 250.35X, analysis of variance results P <0.05, showing that the equation was linear correlation, predictive value = quarterly average forecast × seasonal ratio of seasons. Conclusion By predicting the number of hospital admissions, it provides a reliable basis for hospitals to formulate work plans and leadership decisions, and achieve optimal allocation of health resources.