现有国际贸易理论主要探讨了国际贸易的发生机制,但没有给出一国商品出口总量决定的有效方法。本文认为,研究商品出口必须注意区分商品结构,鉴于制成品出口在全球商品出口中占据最主要的地位,本文以制成品出口为研究对象,构建了衡量一国制成品出口规模的理论框架与实证模型,经大样本检验,得出结论: 一国制成品出口的全球占比主要由人口规模、人口密集度、人口年龄结构、资本形成能力、经济发展模式、贸易成本比较与收益转换等六大因素共同决定。本文运用上述理论与模型,对中国 1985—2010年制成品出口的规模形成进行了理论解释,并通过六种情景模拟出了中国 2010—2030年的制成品出口增长态势,做出如下预测:2010—2020年仍将是我国制成品出口快速增长的时期,2020—2030年期间我国制成品出口的全球占比将达到25%左右的历史峰值,并进入高位持续期; 其后,主要受制于人口抚养比的大幅激升,我国制成品出口全球占比的长期增长趋势将终结,由此进入下降阶段,这将是一个历史性的转变。 The existing theory of international trade mainly explores the mechanism of international trade, but does not give an effective method for determining the total amount of goods exported by a country. This paper argues that the study of commodity exports must pay attention to distinguish the structure of goods. In view of the export of finished products occupies the most important position in the global merchandise exports, this article takes the export of finished products as the research object and constructs the theory of measuring the export scale of a country’s manufactured products. The results show that the global share of manufactured goods exports in a country mainly consists of population size, population density, population age structure, capital formation ability, economic development mode, trade cost comparison and profitability Conversion and other six factors jointly decide. This paper uses the above theories and models to theoretically explain the scale formation of China’s manufactured exports from 1985 to 2010 and simulates the export growth of China’s manufactured products from 2010 to 2030 through six scenarios and makes the following forecast : 2010-2020 will remain a period of rapid growth of China’s manufactured exports. From 2020 to 2030, the global share of China’s manufactured exports will reach a historical peak of about 25% and will enter a high duration. Since then, Mainly due to the sharp rise in population dependency ratio. The long-term growth trend of the global proportion of manufactured goods exports will come to an end. This will lead to a decline and it will be a historic shift.