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新兴大国正抢抓新一轮技术变革的机会窗口,着力推进企业的技术赶超;但这也诱使企业在战略性新兴产业赶超过程中出现“投资潮涌”现象。本文基于资源累积与进入时机的交互效应,探讨了新兴大国企业进入战略性新兴产业赶超的时机选择机制和绩效生成机制,进而通过数理建模和仿真分析比较了不同进入时机的追赶绩效,最后以我国高铁产业为例进行了剖析。研究表明:(1)企业内部存量资源和外部环境资源共同影响企业进入时机的选择,新兴大国企业应选择战略性新兴产业演化的混沌阶段后期或主导设计形成期进入;(2)鉴于单纯的进入时机并不能决定赶超绩效,因此企业进入战略性新兴产业后,还需选择适宜的赶超战略和路径,以谋取资源累积与进入时机的交互效应;(3)先动优势较强的新兴大国企业,应选择战略性新兴产业演化的混沌阶段后期实施赶超,并应实施以技术突破为主导的复合战略;而先动优势较弱的新兴大国企业,应选择战略性新兴产业演化的主导设计萌芽期实施赶超,并应实施以市场导向为主导的复合战略。
Emerging powers are seizing a new round of technological change opportunities window, focus on promoting technological catch-up; but also induce enterprises in strategic emerging industries catch-up “investment surge ” phenomenon. Based on the interaction between resource accumulation and entry timing, this paper explores the opportunity selection mechanism and performance generation mechanism for emerging large-scale enterprises to catch up with strategic emerging industries, and then compares and analyzes the catch-up performance of different entry opportunities through mathematical modeling and simulation. Finally, Take the high-speed rail industry in our country as an example. The research shows that: (1) the internal stock resources and the external environment resources jointly affect the choice of the timing of the enterprises’ entry, the emerging large-scale state enterprises should choose the late stage of the chaos phase or the leading design formation period of the evolution of strategic emerging industries; (2) Therefore, after enterprises enter the strategic emerging industries, they also need to select the appropriate strategies and paths for catching up so as to seek for the mutual effect of the accumulation of resources and the timing of entry. (3) Emerging powers with first mover advantages Enterprises should choose to catch up with the chaos phase of the evolution of strategic emerging industries and implement a composite strategy dominated by technological breakthroughs. Emerging large-scale state enterprises with weak first mover advantage should choose the dominant design of the evolution of strategic emerging industries In the budding period catch-up and implementation should be implemented with a market-oriented composite strategy.