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在短期周期性因素和长期趋势性因素的共同影响下,本轮经济周期出现超预期收缩。但月度景气指数已经在6月左右触底企稳,始于2009年2月的此轮经济周期已经结束,经济景气将在“偏冷”区间内稳中趋升。季度GDP增速的下降局面也有望在2012年三季度停止。预测2012年GDP增长7.7%,物价的下降阶段可能持续到2012年底,预计全年CPI上涨率为2.6%左右,达到预期的调控目标。
Under the combined effect of short-term cyclical factors and long-term trend factors, the over-expected contraction in the current round of economic cycles. However, the monthly prosperity index has bottomed out in around June and the economic cycle that began in February 2009 has come to an end. The economic climate will rise steadily in the “cool” region. Quarterly GDP growth rate is expected to decline in the third quarter of 2012 to stop. It is estimated that GDP growth will be 7.7% in 2012, and the price decline may continue till the end of 2012. The annual CPI growth rate is expected to be 2.6%, reaching the expected regulatory target.