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保障粮食产量安全和价格稳定是永恒话题。当前我国提出化肥、农药等农业生产资料“零增长”行动方案来促进农业绿色发展。为更好实现粮食安全与农业生产方式转变的长短期平衡,需考察农资价格和粮食价格的关系与影响机制。本文在分析农资价格和粮食价格走势的基础上,探究农资价格对粮食价格的影响。结果表明:近年来,我国农资价格的上涨幅度相对小于粮食价格的上涨幅度,并且农资总体价格以及化学肥料、农药的价格变动是粮食价格变动的格兰杰原因。这说明,在农资需求仍然较大的现实情况下,农资类价格对粮食价格的影响不可忽视。在深化农业供给侧改革的过程中,应逐步控制农药、化肥等农资使用量,并从整体上完善农资价格调控机制。
Ensuring food production safety and price stability is an eternal topic. At present, China proposes such agricultural production materials as “fertilizers and pesticides” and “zero growth” to promote agricultural green development. In order to realize the balance of short and long term between food security and the change of agricultural production mode, it is necessary to investigate the relationship and influence mechanism between agricultural prices and food prices. Based on the analysis of the price of agricultural materials and the trend of grain prices, this paper explores the impact of agricultural prices on food prices. The results show that in recent years, the rising rate of agricultural capital in China is relatively smaller than the rising rate of grain price. And the price of chemical fertilizer and pesticide is the Granger cause of the change of grain price. This shows that under the reality that the demand for agricultural materials is still large, the impact of the price of agricultural materials on food prices can not be ignored. In deepening the reform of agricultural supply-side process, we should gradually control the use of pesticides, fertilizers and other agricultural resources, and improve the overall agricultural price regulation mechanism.