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我国稻谷连年增产,供需形势继续向好。粳稻增产明显,农户售粮压力增加,黑龙江、安徽相继启动粳稻托市收购;籼稻产量持平略增,从越南、巴基斯坦低价进口大米增加,抑制了籼稻米市场单边上行的行情,但加剧了国内“稻强米弱”格局,企业加工利润下降。2013年,国内稻谷市场供应充裕,在价差推动下进口大米数量难以骤降,预计稻米市场价格上行继续承压。一、近年稻谷供需形势继续向好(一)近三年稻谷结余量超1100万吨2003年以来,国内稻谷整体保持增产趋势。根据统计局数据,2012年全国稻谷产量为20429万吨,较2011年增产328万吨,较2010年增产853万吨;稻谷占三大主粮品种的比例依然较高,为38%,占全国粮食总产量的比例为35%。
China’s rice production increased year after year, supply and demand situation continued to improve. Japonica rice production increased significantly, increasing pressure on farmers selling grain, Heilongjiang, Anhui, one after another to start the Japonic City propane acquisition; Indica rice production increased slightly, from Vietnam, Pakistani imports of rice imports increased, inhibited the indica rice unilateral upward market, but exacerbated Domestic “rice strong rice weak ” pattern, business processing profits decline. In 2013, there was ample supply of rice in the domestic market. It is difficult to plunge the imported rice under the price differential. It is estimated that the market price of rice will continue to be upward pressured. I. In recent years, the situation of rice supply and demand continue to improve (A) over the past three years the balance of rice over 11 million tons Since 2003, the overall domestic rice production trends to maintain production. According to the data from the Bureau of Statistics, the national paddy output in 2012 was 204.29 million tons, an increase of 3.28 million tons from 2011 and 8.53 million tons more than in 2010; the proportion of paddy in the three major staple food varieties was still high, at 38% of the national grain The proportion of total output is 35%.