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沪胶期货价格近几年波动十分频繁巨大,对上下游产业产生了较大的负面影响,本文采用多元线性回归模型和CORREL函数,对影响沪胶期货价格的外部因素进行了实证分析(本文不考虑内生因素如期货交易量、持仓量等),结合图表直观分析及借鉴前人理论研究,选取4个因素进行实证检验,最终美国原油期货指数因线性相关度较低未通过显著性检验,其余3个因素显著性较好,说明线性回归方程有效。相关性从高到底分别是:伦铜期货价格指数(相关系数为91.06%%)、沪胶期货库存(相关系数为-81.39%)、美元指数(相关系数为-29.59%),然而对于沪胶期货价格而言,原油期货指数的影响作用并不明显(相关系数仅为3.83%,也未通过显著性检验),这点有悖于以往研究发现,值得进一步讨论。
Hujiao futures prices in recent years, the volatility is very frequent, upstream and downstream industries have a greater negative impact on the use of multivariate linear regression model and CORREL function, the impact of the external factors Hujiao futures prices empirical analysis (this article is not Consider endogenous factors such as futures trading volume, open interest, etc.), with the visual analysis of the chart and learn from previous theoretical research, select four factors for empirical test, the final US crude oil futures index due to low linear correlation did not pass the significant test, The other three factors were significantly better, indicating that the linear regression equation is valid. Relevance from the high end are: Copper futures price index (correlation coefficient of 91.06 %%), Hujiao futures stock (correlation coefficient of -81.39%), the dollar index (correlation coefficient of -29.59%), but for Hujiao Futures prices, crude oil futures index effect is not obvious (correlation coefficient of only 3.83%, also failed to pass the significance test), which is contrary to the findings of previous studies, it is worth further discussion.