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[目的]探讨厦门市居民食管癌死亡与减寿的变化趋势,为厦门市食管癌综合防治工作提供依据。[方法]收集整理2004~2014年厦门市居民食管癌死亡资料,计算死亡率、平均减寿年数(AYLL)、死亡率年均变化百分比等评价指标,用GM(1,1)模型对死亡率和AYLL进行预测。[结果]2004~2014年厦门市居民食管癌死亡率为22.98/10万,年均下降2.59%。AYLL为8.23年,总体呈下降趋势。GM(1,1)模型预测2015~2019年食管癌死亡率和AYLL值男性和总体均有所下降,女性则出现反弹。[结论]GM(1,1)模型可用于厦门市居民食管癌死亡率和减寿趋势预测,未来食管癌死亡虽有下降趋势,但仍呈高位态势,仍要重视食管癌的预防控制工作。
[Objective] To investigate the change trend of death and longevity of esophageal cancer in Xiamen residents and provide evidence for the comprehensive prevention and treatment of esophageal cancer in Xiamen. [Methods] The data of death from esophageal cancer in Xiamen residents from 2004 to 2014 were collected and analyzed. The mortality, the average number of years of life lost (AYLL) and the percentage of annual change in mortality were calculated. The mortality rate And AYLL forecast. [Results] The death rate of esophageal cancer in residents from Xiamen in 2004 ~ 2014 was 22.98 / 100,000, with an average annual decline of 2.59%. AYLL was 8.33 years, showing an overall downward trend. The GM (1,1) model predicts a decline in both esophageal cancer mortality and AYLL between men and the general population in 2015-2019, while women rebound. [Conclusion] The GM (1,1) model can be used to predict the esophageal cancer mortality and longevity in Xiamen residents. Although the death rate of esophageal cancer is declining in the future, the GM (1,1) model is still at a high level and the prevention and control of esophageal cancer should be emphasized.