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随着国民经济的迅速发展和人民生活水平的不断提高,研究我国城镇居民收入和旅游消费之间的关系,将为国内旅游业的发展提供重要的参考依据。本文运用协整理论,对1994年至2006年的我国城镇居民人均可支配收入和人均旅游消费之间的关系进行实证分析,得出二者存在长期稳定的关系,并建立了误差修正模型,在对模型的拟合精度进行检验时,得到拟合的相对误差均控制在6%以内,说明模型具有较好的拟合效果和较高的预测精度。
With the rapid development of national economy and continuous improvement of people’s living standards, studying the relationship between urban residents’ income and tourism consumption in our country will provide an important reference for the development of domestic tourism. This paper uses cointegration theory to analyze the relationship between per capita disposable income and per capita tourism consumption of urban residents in our country from 1994 to 2006. It is concluded that there exists a long-term and stable relationship between them and a model of error correction is established. When the fitting accuracy of the model is tested, the relative error of the fitting is controlled within 6%, which shows that the model has a good fitting effect and a high prediction accuracy.