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本文利用协整分析和误差修正模型,对外商在中国直接投资对美中贸易逆差的“引致扩大”效应进行了经验分析。结果表明,美中贸易逆差扩大部分应归因于以加工产业为主的外商直接投资方式,以及由此“引致”的外资在中国企业的出口返销与贸易转移。在此基础上提出:改善贸易统计方法,发挥东亚自由贸易区的贸易转移与贸易创造效应,加强对外资流向的引导,扩大内需,是减少美国对中国贸易逆差的有效手段。
In this paper, using cointegration analysis and error correction model, this paper empirically analyzes the “induced expansion” effect of foreign direct investment in China on the trade deficit between China and the United States. The results show that the expansion of trade deficit between the United States and China is partly attributable to the pattern of foreign direct investment (FDI) dominated by the processing industry and the export sales and trade transfer of Chinese enterprises resulting from the “induced” foreign investment. On this basis, it is proposed that improving the methods of trade statistics, giving full play to the trade transfer and trade creation effects of the free trade zone in East Asia, strengthening the guidance for the flow of foreign capital and expanding domestic demand are effective measures to reduce the U.S. trade deficit with China.