资本主义面临严峻挑战

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  全球经济面临重重难关,继高科技泡沫化后,大犁跨国企业又陆续传出假帐丑闻,暴露出奠基于资本主义的西方自由市场经济的病态。特别是造假与诈欺的行为,正在逐步侵蚀资本主义与市场自由,甚至危害到整个资本社会的基石出。
  继全球第一大能源交易商安然公司惊爆隐瞒两百多亿美元债务的丑闻后,TYCO、全录、Global Crossing、QWWest,甚至法国的维芳迪环球传播,也都陆续传出假帐丑闻。
  一方面,投资人及员工对于公司所提的营运数字及财务健全状况失去信心。另一方面,大众对未来也失去信心。资本主义的运作基础,全靠各方对于投资赌注保持乐观的信任态度,民众一旦对投资对象失去信心,资本主义的根基自然要动摇。
  面临假帐问题最严重的美国,正竭力寻求解决之道。美国总统布什为重建市场信心,要求国会立法,打击“企业犯罪”,致力整治企业文化制度,以期能力挽狂澜,避免资本主义走上穷途末路。布什呼吁“商业界必须建立责任道德制”,并提出成立监督委员会等相关方案,参众两院议员也多借题发挥,使这个议题充满政治色彩。
  欧洲经济面也呈现同样的企业文化病态,资本主义经济的前途笼罩着悲观。
  在企业经营方式越来越趋近美国式“公司治理制度”的欧洲,资本主义的弊病也逐渐浮现,有识之士开始对欧洲资本主义的未来深入思考。国家应该制订更严密的法律,还是应该强十七制衡力量?受薪阶级的定位及其投资基金扮演的角色应如何调整?唯有在这些问题找到正确答案,才能为欧洲创造适当的资本主义调节模式。
  巴黎世界报为此向国际著名经济学者、专家提出资木主义的八大病态,请求诊断及根治处方,涵盖范围包括公司理事会的角色、会计标准、认股权、分析师的可信度、股市的“短期主义”倾向、审计作业、企业评比公司、股市管理机构的权责等,结论是每项都必须改革。
  首先,公司治理制度必须加以改善。理论上,由10~20名理事组成的珲事会,应该扮演公司首要制衡者的角色,对总裁进行监督与咨询,降低决策错误的可能性。但实际上,由于理事常是共同选出的公司其它高层管理人,加上在运作上信息及时间经常欠缺,使得珲事会多半失去这种制衡功能,退化为单纯的登记注册单位,因此,理事会矾实需要改革,赋予实际功能。
  其次,在全球会计标准不统一的情况下,容易发生弊端。欧洲将在2005年以前通过国际会计标准(IAS),但美国仍将依循自己的一般会计原则(GAAP)。会计标准的不同造成管理的困难,依据不同标准进行会计业务可使公司营运数字出现相当的差异。这种模糊不清,造成金融家有玩弄数字的余地,公司帐目的透明性则大受影响。
  在认股权方面,九十年代末期美国企业80%的收入来自股票认购选择权,造成许多弊病。例如,部分管理人刻意使自己持有的证券价格攀升,却损及公司发展策略。此外,认股权的收入并未列入公司支出帐目。国际会计标准已决定将认股权收入列入会计,美国方面,虽然可口可乐等集团也决定采行这个做法,但布什政府目前尚持反对意见。
  金融分析家的地位,在假帐丑闻陆续爆发后,也大受动摇。安然倒闭之前几个星期,许多分析家还大力推荐购买该公司股票。目前,各界开始批评金融分析家的立场过于接近企业的财务管理部门,缺乏独立性。尤有甚者,部分商业银行的分析家置身于严重的利害关系中,不敢针对银行客户发表负面的分析。对于这些弊病,欧美各方都已开始进行整顿措施。
  股市走向与企业策略之间的拉扯,也是资本主义的一大问题。股市的“短视”取向,造成股市波动与长期市场成长趋势大相径庭的现象,经常为公司经营带来强大的压力。
  稽核公司也受到最近资本市场大地震的波及,美国知名顾问公司露德生顾问公司因安然事件而倒闭,就是最受瞩目的例子。7月初Wciss评比公司指出,稽核公司将94%的美国企业列为营运状况健全,但事实上,近六个月以来倒闭的公司中,每100家就有42家在去年底获评营运健全,22家后来被发现帐目有问题。因此,稽核公司是否有足够的权威及中立性能有效审查企业的帐目,是欧美各国目前正在深思的议题。
  企业评比公司的重要性,也开始受到质疑。长期以来,评比公司的信息常是投资人甚至分析家的依据。问题是,评比公司分析的只是公司的付款能力,而付款能力并不能代表公司的未来展望。而且,这些公司的收入经常来自它们所评比的企业提供的佣金,评比的根据常是企业所提供的资料,资料本身如果不正确,评比结果当然也就值得怀疑。特别是在企业集体欺诈的情况下,评比公司几乎只有被摆布的份。有鉴于此,九十年代起部分评比公司开始进行不经企业同意,根据公开信息进行评比的做法。
  股市管制机构的职权是否需要加强?这也是资本主义改革的一大议题。由于商业银行财务分析师毫无根据地恣意膨胀科技股价,市场未能有效自行调节,造成网络泡沫经济爆裂。为求改善,法国财经部长已经指示结合股市交易委员会及金融市场委员会,成立强大的金融市场督导机制。美国方面,布什政府也已决定提高证券交易委员会的权力。
  科技股在股市泡沫般的爆破及企业假帐问题的双重震荡,为美国式的资本主义带来前所未有的危机,如果不及早进行深层的改革,资本主义的未来可能面临崩溃。深受美国资本主义影响的欧洲,特别是在旧式关系网络依然控制大型集团理事会的法国,也无可避免地必须研拟改革之道,才不会步上美国的后尘。
  另外,也有分析家指出,加强政府机构的调节功能,并不是改善自由市场体制的神奇药方,最重要的应是道德因素,只有当市场上每一份子都凭良心做事,各种管制调节措施才能落实。这一点,可能是资本主义改革最困难之处。
  
  Capitalism Faces Severe Challenges
  Beijing Guoxin Economic Development Strategy Research Center
  The world economy is now faced with difficulties. Followingthe bursting of the IT bubble, accounting fraud scandalsinvolving a number of big multinational corporations haverevealed the ills of capitalism based on the free market in theWest. Account book cooking and fraud, in particular, are erodingcapitalism and market freedom. They are even damaging thevery foundation of capitalist society.
   Following the exposure of the scandal that Enron, the biggestenergy trader in the world, had concealed deliberately more thanUS$20 billion worth of debts, accounting fraud scandals havehit Tyco, Adelphia, Global Crossing, Qwest and even VivendiUniversal of France.
   Investors and employees have lost confidence in the accountbooks and financial health of companies. And the public has lostconfidence in the future. Popular trust in positive returns oninvestment is the foundation for the operation of capitalism. Aloss of confidence in investment targets naturally shakes thefoundation of capitalism.
   The United States which has been most severely hit byaccounting fraud, is trying to find a cure. George W. Bush, theUS president, has urged the legislation to crack down on"corporate crimes" and called on the business community toestablish a moral and responsibility system. Members of the USCongress have also come out with a lot of rhetoric, making thesubject politically charged.
   The European economy has revealed the same kind ofcorporate ills. The future of capitalist economy is cast in gloom.
   In Europe where ways of corporate operation nudgesincreasingly closer to the American model, ills of capitalism havebecome more evident. People with insight have begun taking aclose look at the future of capitalism in Europe. Should the stateenact more strict laws or strengthen checks and balances? Howshould the status of the salaried class and the role of investmentcapital be adjusted? Europe cannot create an appropriate adjustingmode for capitalism unless it has found answers to thesequestions.
   The Pads-based Le Monde has listed eight ills of capitalismthat cry for treatment by renowned international economists.These ills are found in the following fields: the role of thecorporate council of directors, accounting standards, stockoptions, trustworthiness of the analyst, the "short-termist" trendof the stock market, audit operations, corporate rating firms andthe responsibilities and obligations of stock marketadministration. The conclusion is that reform should be carriedin each field.
   First of all, the corporate council of directors should bereformed. In theory, a council composed of 10-20 directors shouldplay the role of the principal overseer for a firm in question. Itsupervises and advises the CEO and, thereby, reduces thepossibility of wrong decision-making. In reality, however, asdirectors are usually senior managers of the same company, plusa lack of information and time, directors fail to play a supervisoryrole. The council usually degenerates into a simple registrationorgan. Reform should give teeth to the corporate council.
   Secondly, problems tend to arise from disparate accountingstandards around the world. Europe is expected to adopt theInternational Accounting Standards (IAS), whereas the UnitedStates continues to apply Generally Accepted AccountingPrinciple (GAAP). Such differences can lead to considerabledifferences on the account book. Where there is ambiguity, thereis room for financial crooks to play tricks with statistics,compromising the transparency of corporate account books.
   Now the question of stock options. In the late 1990s, about80% of the incomes of the US corporate CEOs came from stockoptions, and this has resulted in a lot of problems. Some CEOsdo their best to hike the prices of the shares they hold, whilesacrificing the future of the companies they run. Besides, incomesfrom stock options are not listed as corporate expenses, lAS hasdecided to list incomes from stock options, and Coca Cola of theUnited States has decided to do the same, but the BushAdministration is still opposed to this.
   The status of the financial analyst has taken a beating sinceaccounting fraud cases hit the headlines. Several weeks beforethe downfall of Enron, many analysts were stronglyrecommending the public to buy Enron shares. Critics now accusefinancial analysts of being too close to the financial departmentsof companies they analyze and of lacking independence.Furthermore, the analysts of some commercial banks run into severe conflict of interests and dare not make a negative analysis of their banks‘ customers.
   Audit firms have also been hit hard in the recent capitalist market upheavals. Andersen, a well-known US-based audit firm, has gone bankrupt because of its involvement in the Enron scandal.
   In early July, Weiss, a rating firm, said that, while auditfirms had rated 94% of US companies as being healthy, the factis that in the last six months, of every 100 companies that hadgone under, 42 were rated as being healthy at the end of lastyear, including 22 that had accounting problems. Whether ornot audit firms have enough authority and neutrality to effectivelyaudit the books of companies is a subject being looked into inthe United States and Europe.
   The importance of rating firms is being queried, too.Information provided by rating firms is usually the basis on whichinvestors decide where to put their money and analysts maketheir forecasts. Problem is, what rating firms analyze is limitedto a company‘s ability to pay, whereas the ability to pay does notrepresent the future of the company in question. Furthermore,the incomes of rating firms often come from the commission ofthe companies they evaluate. And evaluation is based primarilyon data provided by the companies under evaluation. If suchdata are not correct, the result of evaluation is naturally calledinto question. In particular, if a company being rated is bent oncheating, a rating firm can hardly escape the plight of beingmanipulated. As a result, beginning from the 1990s, some ratingfirms began evaluating companies on the basis of openly availabledata without the consent of the companies being evaluated.
   Is it necessary to strengthen the authority of the stock marketadministration? This is also a major subject on the capitalismreform agenda. Because, with ceaseless touting by analysts ofcommercial banks, prices of technology shares kept inflatingand because the market failed to self-regulate, the Internet bubblehas burst. To improve the situation, the finance minister of Francehas established a powerful supervisory mechanism for thefinancial market by combining stock exchange and financialmarket regulatory commissions. In the United States, PresidentBush has also decided to give more power to the Securities andExchange Commission.
   The bursting of the technology bubble and exposure ofcorporate accounting fraud has driven American-style capitalisminto an unprecedented crisis. If no deep-going reform is carriedout, capitalism faces the possibility of collapse. Europe, whichhas been under heavy American influence, needs to embark on aroad of reform if it wants to avoid following in the footsteps ofthe United States.
   Analysts have also pointed out that the regulatory functionsof the government are not a miracle drug for the ills of a freemarket. The most important factor should be ethics. Only whenevery member of the business community conducts business in all fairness and with a clear conscience can regulatory measuresreally be effective. And this may be where the greatest difficulty of capitalist reforms lies.
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