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灾害风险评估是最简单有效的防灾减灾措施之一。以松花江流域为研究区域,提出了一种基于遥感实时监测数据和历史洪涝灾害数据的洪涝风险评估改进模型。选取中国气象科学数据共享服务网的降雨数据、NASA的SRTM90mDEM地形数据、河网数据以及对2007年全国统计年鉴进行空间化所得的人口和GDP数据作为因子,应用层次分析法计算了各因子的权重,基于洪涝灾害形成机制计算了初始的松花江洪涝风险指数。在此基础上,获取历史洪涝灾情频次数据和HJ-1实时遥感影像提取的水体淹没范围数据,利用地图代数法来对初始的风险指数进行改进。考虑历史洪涝风险的规律性和风险评测时的具体水体范围信息,使得所得结果能够反映松花江流域洪涝灾害的综合风险,具有一定的现势性,为防灾减灾提供了依据。
Disaster risk assessment is one of the simplest and most effective disaster prevention and mitigation measures. Taking Songhua River Basin as a research area, an improved flood risk assessment model based on real-time monitoring data and historical flood disaster data was proposed. Taking rainfall data from China Meteorological Science Data Service Network, NASA’s SRTM90mDEM topographic data, river network data and population and GDP data from the spatialization of National Statistical Yearbook 2007 as a factor, AHP was used to calculate the weight of each factor Based on the mechanism of flood disasters, the initial flood risk index of Songhua River was calculated. Based on this, the frequency data of historical floods and the data of inundated waters extracted from HJ-1 real-time remote sensing images are obtained, and the initial risk index is improved by map algebra. Considering the regularity of historical flood risk and the specific water body scope information during risk assessment, the results can reflect the integrated risk of flood and water disasters in Songhua River Basin, and have a certain potential, which provides a basis for disaster prevention and mitigation.