【摘 要】
：
区域“自然-社会-经济”复合系统是一个具有耗散结构的开放巨系统,具有高阶次、多变量、多回路和强非线性的反馈结构,系统行为往往具有反直观性、对内部参数变化的不敏感性
【机 构】
：
中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所,西北大学城市与资源学系,中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所 吉林长春130012中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所北京100101,陕西西安710069 ,吉林长春13
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区域“自然-社会-经济”复合系统是一个具有耗散结构的开放巨系统,具有高阶次、多变量、多回路和强非线性的反馈结构,系统行为往往具有反直观性、对内部参数变化的不敏感性等特性.运用系统动力学理论与方法建模较传统的数学模型更能充分刻画系统的非线性结构和动态特征.论文着眼于区域可持续发展系统的复杂动态关系,以县级区域为研究对象,探讨经济自然增长、经济高速增长和经济适度增长三种方案下的县域可持续发展模式,并比较优选出最佳模式,旨在为促进县域可持续发展提供借鉴.
The system of “natural-socio-economic” region is an open giant system with dissipative structure, with high-order, multivariable, multiloop and strong nonlinear feedback structure. The system behavior is often counter-intuitive. The non-sensitivity of the internal parameters and so on.Using the theory and method of system dynamics modeling to describe the nonlinear structure and dynamic characteristics of the system more fully than the traditional mathematical model.Papers focus on the complex dynamic relationship of regional sustainable development system, Taking the county-level area as the research object, this paper explores the sustainable development mode of the county under three different scenarios: natural economy growth, rapid economic growth and moderate economic growth, and selects the best mode to better provide a reference for the sustainable development of the county.
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