消费国需求增长疲软和新能源、节能技术的推广导致全球石油过剩状态将持续相当长的时间。原油价格持续下跌,产油国失去了垄断价格地位。去年美国人预言,美国页岩油可以承受45美元/桶,而且还有利润空间(实际美国页岩油气也自伤了)。回想1987年,全球原油价格由30多美元/桶,直降到7~9美元/桶,直接后果是靠油气资源维持庞大帝国的前苏联及东欧集团,瞬间被美国、沙特设计的石油升降“魔圈”摧毁,从而改变了世界格局。 Weak demand growth in consumer countries and the promotion of new energy and energy-saving technologies have led to the global oil surplus going on for quite some time. Crude oil prices continued to fall, oil-producing countries have lost their monopoly price status. Americans predicted in the past year that shale oil in the United States could withstand 45 U.S. dollars per barrel, and that there was also room for profit (the actual shale gas in the United States also hurt itself). Recall that in 1987, the global crude oil price dropped from more than 30 U.S. dollars / barrel to 7 to 9 U.S. dollars a barrel. The direct result was that oil and gas resources were used to sustain the huge empire of the former Soviet Union and Eastern European blocs. In the meantime, oil prices were dropped by the United States and Saudi Arabia, “Magic ring” destroyed, thus changing the world pattern.