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以2008年国际金融危机爆发为转折点,世界经济步入深度调整和转型发展期,周期性和结构性矛盾交织,新旧动力转换难以无缝接续,经济步入弱复苏小周期。长期看,世界经济正处于第五轮长周期的下行阶段,在人口、技术创新和宏观政策等深层因素的制约下,供需两侧都受到明显抑制,将在较长时期呈现弱增长态势,总体风险偏于下行。世界经济处于长波周期调整途中的弱复苏小周期阶段从长波看,世界经济处于第五
Taking the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008 as a turning point, the world economy has entered a period of deep readjustment and transformation and development. The cyclical and structural contradictions are intertwined. It is difficult to seamlessly connect the old power transfer with the old one and the economy enters a weak recovery cycle. In the long run, the world economy is in the downward phase of the fifth round of long cycles. Under the constraints of such in-depth factors as population, technological innovation and macroeconomic policies, both sides of supply and demand will be significantly inhibited and will show a weak growth over a longer period. Overall, Risk partial to the downside. The world economy is in the process of adjustment of the long-wave cycle Weak recovery period of the small cycle From the long-wave perspective, the world economy is in the fifth