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本文关注影响我国经济增长的四个因素并对其进行协整分析。为了克服“伪回归”带来的不真实结果,首先对非平稳变量进行分析、处理,找到他们之间稳定的数量关系。然后,采用协整理论对变量之间的关系进行进一步的实证分析。最后得出结论消费在短期和长期都是拉动我国经济增长的主要因素;投资应具有合理性否则会阻碍经济增长;可以通过刺激消费来影响进出口与投资的途径从而促进我国经济增长。
This article focuses on the four factors that affect China’s economic growth and conducts cointegration analysis. In order to overcome the unrealistic result brought by “pseudo-regression ”, we first analyze and deal with the non-stationary variables and find a stable quantitative relationship between them. Then, using the cointegration theory to further analyze the relationship between variables. Finally, it is concluded that consumption is the main factor driving our country’s economic growth in the short and long term; investment should be reasonable or otherwise impede economic growth; and economic growth can be promoted through stimulating consumption to influence the channels of import, export and investment.