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本文从全球金融发展不平衡的视角研究全球贸易失衡,建立一个流动性约束的跨时贸易模型,证明了金融发展差异、消费者跨期消费能力与贸易余额之间的关系。通过选取86个国家1990～2009年的面板数据实证研究发现,金融市场规模、金融市场活力等金融发展指标与贸易余额有着显著的负相关关系。全球贸易失衡问题的解决必须从根本上缩小各国金融发展的差异,发展新兴市场国家的本土金融市场,改变美国在全球金融体系中的主导和支配地位,构建多元化的国际金融体系。
This paper studies the global trade imbalance from the perspective of the unbalanced global financial development and establishes a cross-time trade model with liquidity constraints. It proves the relationship between financial development differences, consumer spending power and trade balances. By selecting the panel data of 86 countries from 1990 to 2009, we find that there are significant negative correlations between financial development indexes such as financial market scale and financial market vitality and trade balances. The solution to the global trade imbalance must fundamentally narrow the differences in financial development among various countries, develop the local financial markets in emerging market countries, change the dominance and dominance of the United States in the global financial system and build a diversified international financial system.