论文部分内容阅读
为研究航空维修安全管理新思路,就组织因素影响航空维修安全问题,通过建立系统动力学(SD)模型,分析其作用机理,并辨识关键组织因素。首先依据事故因果连锁理论和“瑞士奶酪”模型,建立组织因素影响航空维修安全的概念模型;在此基础上,应用SD建模原理和方法,建立组织因素影响航空维修安全的SD模型,并在参数设置时采用模糊推理理论分析组织因素的不确定性问题;然后,利用SD模型研究各组织因素对航空维修系统安全水平的影响,对关键组织因素进行动态识别;最后,运用SD建模仿真软件Vensim PLE进行仿真计算。结果表明,用该方法能够对比分析各组织因素安全投入增长量对航空维修安全水平的影响,从而能够识别影响航空维修安全的关键组织因素。
In order to study the new thinking of aviation maintenance safety management, the organizational factors affect the safety of aviation maintenance. By establishing the system dynamics (SD) model, the mechanism of action is analyzed and the key organizational factors are identified. Firstly, based on the theory of accidental causal chain and the model of “Swiss Cheese”, a conceptual model of the influence of organizational factors on aviation maintenance safety is established. Based on this, SD model and SD method are established to establish the SD model that affects the aviation maintenance safety with organizational factors. At the same time, the fuzzy reasoning theory is used to analyze the uncertainty of the organizational factors when setting the parameters. Then, the SD model is used to study the influence of each organizational factor on the safety level of the aviation maintenance system and the dynamic identification of the key organizational factors. Finally, Simulation software Vensim PLE simulation. The results show that this method can compare and analyze the influence of the growth of safety input of each organization factor on the aviation maintenance safety level, so as to identify the key organizational factors that affect the aviation maintenance safety.