文章从贝叶斯方法出发,通过非对称性的阈回归模型对我国产业结构在经济上升和下降阶段中各次产业对经济增长贡献的差异性进行实证分析。结果表明,第一产业增长率上升将提高GDP水平,第二产业增长率上升却对GDP增长产生负向作用;随着产出和第一、二、三次产业增长率的变化,各次产业对经济增长的贡献具有显著差异。 Based on the Bayesian approach, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the differences in the contribution of various industries to economic growth through the asymmetric threshold regression model in the period of rising and falling of the industrial structure in our country. The results show that the increase in the growth rate of the primary industry will increase the GDP level while the increase in the secondary industry rate will have a negative effect on the GDP growth. With the changes in the output and the growth rates of the first, second and third industries, The contribution of economic growth has significant differences.