论文部分内容阅读
宏观监测预警模型显示,中国宏观经济总体已逐渐由1993年9月以前的红灯区 (过热状态)回落到去年下半年的“黄红灯”(偏热状态)交界处,今年一季度进一 步回落到“黄灯区”中下限,综合景气值已进入较稳定状态。社会总供求平衡关系基本处于正常范围。经济增长速度有所回落,但仍处于较高水平。初步测算,一季度国内生产总值为9811亿元,比去年同期增长11.2％,若剔除季节性因素影响(主要是一季度农业比重较低,只占9.6％),折成年率约为10％。从经济运行主要环节看,显现出好转势头。 1、工业生产稳定增长。一季度乡及乡以上工业完成增加值3996亿元,比去年同期增长14.4％。从增长构成分析,主要有以下四个新特点:一是国有工业增长有所加快,一季度增长7.5％。二是重工业增长进一步放慢,轻重工业增幅之差趋于扩大。三是支农产品的生产情况较好,化肥、化学衣药、农用薄膜、小型拖拉机等的生产量分别增长14.1—73.5％。四是企业产销衔接情况好于去年,工业产品销售率达94.4％,比去年同期提高3.09个百分点。
The macro-monitoring and early warning model shows that the overall macro-economy in China has gradually dropped from the red light district (overheated state) before September 1993 to the “yellow red light” (warmed state) junction of the second half of last year and further dropped to the “yellow light District ”in the lower limit, the integrated economy has entered a more stable state. The total social supply and demand balance in the normal range. The rate of economic growth has dropped somewhat, but it is still at a relatively high level. Preliminary estimates show that in the first quarter, the GDP was 981.1 billion yuan, an increase of 11.2% over the same period of last year. Excluding the seasonal factors (mainly due to the low proportion of agriculture in the first quarter, only 9.6%), the annualized rate is about 10% . From the main aspects of economic operation, showing a momentum of improvement. 1, steady growth in industrial production. In the first quarter, the added value of township and township industries was 399.6 billion yuan, an increase of 14.4% over the same period of last year. From the analysis of the composition of growth, there are mainly four new features as follows: First, the growth of state-owned industries has accelerated and increased by 7.5% in the first quarter. Second, the growth of heavy industry slowed further, and the difference between light and heavy industries tended to widen. Third, the production of agricultural products is better. The output of chemical fertilizers, chemical raw materials, agricultural films and small tractors has increased by 14.1-73.5%. Fourth, the convergence between production and sales was better than last year. The sales rate of industrial products reached 94.4%, an increase of 3.09 percentage points over the same period of last year.