当天气预报员无法预测飓风的确切路径时,他们往往告诫当地居民要“抱最好的希望,做最坏的准备”。这句箴言也同样适用于当前的全球经济气候和发展中国家的前景。欧洲的财政金融危机与美国的财政风险相伴而来,加剧了全球投资者和消费者的不安情绪。这种不安情绪增加了2012年出现更为不利的增长情景的概率,迫使发展中国家必须吸收2008年危 When weather forecaster can not predict the exact path of a hurricane, they tend to warn the local population to “hold the best hope and make the worst preparations.” The same maxim applies to the current global economic climate and the prospects of developing countries. The financial crisis in Europe is accompanied by the fiscal risks in the United States, exacerbating the unease among investors and consumers around the world. This unease adds to the probability of a more adverse growth scenario in 2012, forcing developing countries to absorb the 2008 crisis