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考虑到新技术的性能、新技术的质量以及新技术出现时间的不确定性,结合投资企业的综合质量,企业的吸收能力等不确定因素,建立不确定情形下的多代新技术投资模型,并在此基础上假设新技术进步状态服从泊松过程,对企业面临未来多代新技术时的投资策略进行分析,利用动态规划、期权博弈等方法得出了在四种情形下的新技术投资价值,并且分析了企业在作多次技术转换时投资多代新技术的策略,得出了企业作多次技术转换时企业的投资成本门槛、投资价值和投资成本满足的条件.
Considering the performance of new technologies, the quality of new technologies and the uncertainty of new technologies, combining with uncertainties such as the overall quality of investment enterprises and the absorptive capacity of enterprises, a multi-generation new technology investment model under uncertainty is established. On the basis of this, we assume that the state of new technology follows Poisson process and analyze the investment strategy when enterprises face many generations of new technologies in the future. Using the methods of dynamic programming and option game, we get the new technology investment under the four conditions Value, and analyzes the strategy that enterprises invest many generations of new technologies when they make multiple technology transitions. It concludes the conditions for enterprises to meet the investment cost threshold, investment value and investment cost for multiple technology transitions.