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针对公共场所突发事件情境下受灾人群间信息传播与扩散的特征,定义一种受灾人群间信息传播与扩散的微分过程.根据公共场所突发事件情境下信息的多元性,将信息分为消极信息和积极信息,基于Gilpin-Ayala扩散模型,建立一种基于公共场所突发事件情境下的受灾人群间信息传播与扩散模型,并对模型的动态过程进行分析,提出并证明了最佳安全疏散汇集点定理.利用定理的结论,分析突发信息传播扩散可能出现的情况,进一步分析信息传播与扩散对受灾人群的影响.最后通过算例计算分析,验证了理论的正确性和有效性,并根据计算结果给出了几点政策建议.
Aiming at the characteristics of information dissemination and diffusion among affected people in emergency situations in public places, this paper defines a differential process of information dissemination and diffusion among affected people.According to the diversity of information under public emergency situations, the information is divided into negative Information and positive information, based on the Gilpin-Ayala diffusion model, a model of information dissemination and diffusion among disaster-affected people in public places was set up based on the diffusion model. The dynamic process of the model was analyzed and the best safe evacuation The theorem of convergence is used to analyze the possible situation of the spread of the burst information and further analyze the influence of the spread and spread of the information on the affected population.Finally, the correctness and validity of the theory are verified by the example calculation and analysis According to the calculation results are given a few policy recommendations.