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按照ATC协议的安排,纺织品国际贸易2005年1月1日起步入无配额时代。中国政府于2005年1月1日对148种纺织品征收了出口税,但是欧美应对中国的却是重新设置纺织品配额。本文构建了可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,分析后配额时期纺织品出口税和纺织品配额的经济影响。分析结果表明,无论征收出口税还是设置配额,中国、欧盟和美国的福利都将受损;但是相对于其他国家来说中国的损失最大,主要表现为就业机会的损失;从福利角度来看,印度将是最大的受益国;从纺织品市场份额角度来看,OECD国家和拉美及加勒比海国家将受益最大。
In accordance with the ATC agreement, international trade in textiles started its operation on January 1, 2005 with no quota. The Chinese government imposed an export tax on 148 kinds of textile products on January 1, 2005, but Europe and the United States responded to China by resetting their textile quotas. This paper builds a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze the economic impact of textile export taxes and textile quotas in the post-quota period. The results of the analysis show that the welfare of China, the EU and the United States will be impaired regardless of the export tax or quota. However, compared with other countries, China has the largest loss, which is mainly the loss of employment opportunities. From a welfare point of view, India will be the largest beneficiary; OECD countries and Latin American and Caribbean countries will benefit most from the textile market share point of view.